国际顶刊 | 《美国政治科学评论》2021年第2期
让每一个人自由地理解政治
让世界各地的学人成果互联互通
让政治学人的核心关切得到传播
让闪烁的政治学人共享这片充满思考和情怀的天空
政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了《美国政治科学评论》2021年第115卷第2期文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
American Political Science Review（美国政治科学评论）是美国政治学会旗下最知名的期刊，创刊于1906年并由剑桥大学出版社出版，是政治学最早和最具权威的学术期刊。提供同行评审的文章和评论整个学科子领域的论文。2018年的影响因子为3.895，在176种政治科学类期刊中排名第7。
期刊涉及领域包括：政治学理论、美国政治、公共政策、公共行政、比较政治和国际关系等。
PART 2
期刊目录
Women Thinkers and the Canon of International Thought: Recovery, Rejection, and Reconstitution
女性思想家和国际关系思想的经典之作：恢复、拒绝和重构
From Thin to Thick Representation: How a Female President Shapes Female Parliamentary Behavior
从名义到实质的代表：女总统如何影响女议员的行为
To Emerge? Breadwinning, Motherhood, and Women’s Decisions to Run for Office
参选吗? 赚钱能力、母亲身份和女性竞选公职的决策
How Do Campaign Spending Limits Affect Elections? Evidence from the United Kingdom 1885–2019
竞选支出限额如何影响选举？来自英国的证据1885–2019
Universal Suffrage as Decolonization
去殖民化的普选权
Why Parties Displace Their Voters: Gentrification, Coalitional Change, and the Demise of Public Housing
政党为何要选民流离失所：绅士化，联盟变革和公共住房的消亡
When Are Legislators Responsive to Ethnic Minorities? Testing the Role of Electoral Incentives and Candidate Selection for Mitigating Ethnocentric Responsiveness
立法者何时对少数民族做出回应？检验选举激励和候选人选择对缓和民族中心主义回应的作用
Pride amid Prejudice: The Influence of LGBT+ Rights Activism in a Socially Conservative Society
偏见中的傲慢：LGBT+维权运动在保守型社会中的影响
Why Austerity? The Mass Politics of a Contested Policy
为什么采取紧缩政策？争议政策的大众政治
Triggering Ideological Thinking: How Elections Foster Coherence of Welfare State Attitudes
触发意识形态思考：选举如何促进福利国家态度的一致性
Constitutional Origins and Liberal Democracy: A Global Analysis, 1900–2015
宪法的起源和自由民主：一个全球性分析，1900-2015
Four Costly Signaling Mechanisms
四种高成本的信号机制
Gone For Good: Deindustrialization, White Voter Backlash, and US Presidential Voting
一去不复返：去工业化，白人选民的反水，和美国总统大选
Slavery, Reconstruction, and Bureaucratic Capacity in the American South
美国南部的奴隶制，重建和官僚能力
When Unfamiliarity Breeds Contempt: How Partisan Selective Exposure Sustains Oppositional Media Hostility
当不熟悉滋生鄙夷：党员的选择性接触如何使对立媒体的敌意持续
Control without Confirmation: The Politics of Vacancies in Presidential Appointments
无需批准的控制：总统任命中的空缺政治
Platonic Theocracy, Liberalism, and Authoritarianism in Leo Strauss’s Philosophy and Law
列奥·施特劳斯《哲学与律法》中的柏拉图式神学政治，自由主义，和威权主义
Deliberation, Single-Peakedness, and Coherent Aggregation
决策，单峰，和一致的集合
A Dynamic Model of Speech for the Social Sciences
社会科学话语的动力模型
The Political Economy of Governance Quality
治理质量的政治经济学
PART 3
精选译文
01 女性思想家和国际关系思想的经典之作：恢复、拒绝和重构
【题目】
Women Thinkers and the Canon of International Thought: Recovery, Rejection, and Reconstitution
【作者】
Kimberly Hutchings, Pataricia Owens
【摘要】
学术“巨擎”的经典之作标志着学科的历史和范畴。在国关领域，这样的经典在二十世纪中叶开始涌现，而且几乎完全是男性的。为什么国际关系的学术经典中没有女性？我们发现，这既不是因为女性缺乏国际关系的理论，也不是因为这一理论不属于既有的IR理论的范畴。而是源自于对应该被视为经典的学术作品的基于性别和种族的选择和接受。相比之下，我们通过对三位女性学者（其著作在当时或现在都具有权威性和影响力）的分析恢复女性的的国际关系思想来看看我们能有什么收获。我们质疑了支撑IR现有学术经典的几个基本前提，并提议需要针对女性国际思想家提出新的研究议程，作为对该学科的历史和范畴进行彻底反思的一部分。
Canons of intellectual “greats” anchor the history and scope of academic disciplines. Within international relations (IR), such a canon emerged in the mid-twentieth century and is almost entirely male. Why are women thinkers absent from IR’s canon? We show that it is not due to a lack of international thought, or that this thought fell outside established IR theories. Rather it is due to the gendered and racialized selection and reception of work that is deemed to be canonical. In contrast, we show what can be gained by reclaiming women’s international thought through analyses of three intellectuals whose work was authoritative and influential in its own time or today. Our findings question several of the basic premises underpinning IR’s existing canon and suggest the need for a new research agenda on women international thinkers as part of a fundamental rethinking of the history and scope of the discipline.
02 从名义到实质的代表：女总统如何影响女议员的行为
【题目】
From Thin to Thick Representation: How a Female President Shapes Female Parliamentary Behavior
【作者】
Michael Wahman, Nikolaos Frantzeskakis, Tevfik Murat Yildirim
【摘要】
女总统的象征性权力如何影响女议员的行为？尽管女性描述性代表在世界范围内呈上升趋势，但女议员仍然面临严重的性别歧视和刻板印象，从而限制了她们表达真实诉求并向女选民提供“实质”代表的能力。我们以马拉维为例。由于受到外部冲击，马拉维的总统职位从男性转交到了女性手中，我们借此来研究女总统对女性议员行为的影响。基于独特的议会文字记录数据，我们发现女总统领导下的女议员会变得有能力且更少受限于刻板的性别化的问题所有权模式，从而显著增加了女议员的公共表达。通过特别关注精英内部的榜样效应，我们的研究结果直接处理了象征性代表理论。
How does the symbolic power of a female president affect female parliamentary behavior? Whereas female descriptive representation has increased around the world, women parliamentarians still face significant discrimination and stereotyping, inhibiting their ability to have a real voice and offer “thick” representation to women voters. We leverage the case of Malawi, a case where the presidency changed hands from a man to a woman through a truly exogenous shock, to study the effect of a female president on female parliamentary behavior. Drawing on unique parliamentary transcripts data, we argue and show that women MPs under a female president become empowered and less confined to stereotypical gendered issue-ownership patterns, leading to a significant increase in female MP speech making. Our results directly address theories of symbolic representation by focusing particularly on intraelite role-model effects.
03 参选吗? 赚钱能力、母亲身份和女性竞选公职的决策
【题目】
To Emerge? Breadwinning, Motherhood, and Women’s Decisions to Run for Office
【作者】
Rachel Bernhard, Shauna Shames, Dawn Langan Teele
【摘要】
美国政治研究通常将女性代表性不足归因于女性政治抱负的限制。然而，学者仍在力图解释权力输送管道流失的问题：很多合格且富有政治野心的女性决定不参加竞选。本研究着眼于具有政治抱负的女性，我们认为在候选人参选的最后阶段，家庭收入，赚钱的责任和家庭构成是和女性参选的障碍密切相关。我们通过混合研究设计来检验这些动态因素，其中包括对最有可能竞选公职的女性（美国最大的民主党竞选培训组织的校友）的原始调查。尽管我们发现收入对女性参选没有影响，但我们提供的证据表明，赚钱的责任（即承担家庭收入的大部分）对妇女的政治抱负有负面影响，对有孩子的女性更是如此。这些发现对于理解家庭的政治经济如何影响美国的候选人参选和描述性代表具有重要意义。
Women’s underrepresentation in American politics is often attributed to relatively low levels of political ambition. Yet scholarship still grapples with a major leak in the pipeline to power: that many qualified and politically ambitious women decide against candidacy. Focusing on women with political ambition, we theorize that at the final stage of candidate emergence, household income, breadwinning responsibilities, and household composition are interlocking obstacles to women’s candidacies. We examine these dynamics through a multimethod design that includes an original survey of women most likely to run for office: alumnae of the largest Democratic campaign training organization in the United States. Although we do not find income effects, we provide evidence that breadwinning—responsibility for a majority of household income—negatively affects women’s ambition, especially for mothers. These findings have important implications for understanding how the political economy of the household affects candidate emergence and descriptive representation in the United States.
04 竞选支出限额如何影响选举？来自英国的证据1885–2019
【题目】
How Do Campaign Spending Limits Affect Elections? Evidence from the United Kingdom 1885–2019
【作者】
Alexander Fouirnaies
【摘要】
在世界上一半以上的民主国家中，候选人竞选活动的开支面临法律限制，但我们对这些限制的后果知之甚少。本文研究了支出限制如何影响英国下议院的选举。我提供了有关1885年至2019年竞选国会议席超过70,000多名候选人的新数据，记录了每位候选人的开销及他们如何在不同支出类别上进行分配，以及面临的支出限制。为了识别对选举的影响，我利用了只影响部分而非全部选区的支出限制公式的改革引起的支出上限的变化。结果表明，当允许的支出水平增加时，竞选活动的成本就会增加，这主要是由与广告有关的支出驱动的，并且主要是对工党候选人不利；候选人人数减少，选举竞争弱化；并且扩大了在任者享有的财政和选举优势。
In more than half of the democratic countries in the world, candidates face legal constraints on how much money they can spend on their electoral campaigns, yet we know little about the consequences of these restrictions. I study how spending limits affect UK House of Commons elections. I contribute new data on the more than 70,000 candidates who ran for a parliamentary seat from 1885 to 2019, and I document how much money each candidate spent, how they allocated their resources across different spending categories, and the spending limit they faced. To identify the effect on elections, I exploit variation in spending caps induced by reforms of the spending-limit formula that affected some but not all constituencies. The results indicate that when the level of permitted spending is increased, the cost of electoral campaigns increases, which is primarily driven by expenses related to advertisement and mainly to the disadvantage of Labour candidates; the pool of candidates shrinks and elections become less competitive; and the financial and electoral advantages enjoyed by incumbents are amplified.
05 去殖民化的普选权
【题目】
Universal Suffrage as Decolonization
【作者】
Kevin Duong
【摘要】
本文重构了二十世纪政治思想的一个重要但被遗忘的梦想：去殖民化的普选权。这个梦想源于黑人大西洋激进分子努力把普选权加入到更广泛的种族自我表达和文化革命的运动中。其支持者们相信，广泛的公民权利可以使帝国机构控制下的殖民地人民表达自己的诉求并改变全球秩序。本文重新审视了这一反叛的投票思想，揭示了激进分子是如何将普选权和去殖民化谋划为单一历史过程的。它也将去殖民化的命运置于令人震惊的后果中：去殖民化可能成为本世纪以来最严重的剥夺公民权的行为。随着附属国家转变成民族国家，他们失去了在宗主国的会议中的发言权，但是他们在独立后很长时间内都将受到宗主国事务的影响。
This essay reconstructs an important but forgotten dream of twentieth-century political thought: universal suffrage as decolonization. The dream emerged from efforts by Black Atlantic radicals to conscript universal suffrage into wider movements for racial self-expression and cultural revolution. Its proponents believed a mass franchise could enunciate the voice of colonial peoples inside imperial institutions and transform the global order. Recuperating this insurrectionary conception of the ballot reveals how radicals plotted universal suffrage and decolonization as a single historical process. It also places decolonization’s fate in a surprising light: it may have been the century’s greatest act of disenfranchisement. As dependent territories became nation-states, they lost their voice in metropolitan assemblies whose affairs affected them long after independence.
06 政党为何要选民流离失所：绅士化，联盟变革和公共住房的消亡
【题目】
Why Parties Displace Their Voters: Gentrification, Coalitional Change, and the Demise of Public Housing
【作者】
Winston Chou, Rafaela Dancygier
【摘要】
在发达经济体中，可负担的住房的匮乏迫使低收入选民离开城市。左翼政府经常通过减少公共住房来加剧住房短缺。为什么左翼政府要采取让选民流离失所的政策？我们认为，左派对中产阶级的长期再平衡和对越来越被污名化的“下层阶级”的疏离显著减少了其政治权衡——它内在于可负担住房的供给。以英国为例，我们发现，通过政治上疏远低收入选民并将他们在各个选区进行重新组合，住房危机给工党带来了沉重的代价。然而，基于访谈，我们发现这一流离失所策略却是符合选举利益的：被迫离开城市的流离失所的选民为支持工党的富有的选民腾出了空间。通过对大伦敦的32个地方当局和624个选区的定量分析进一步证明了与联盟再平衡相一致的趋势。总之，我们的研究表明，选举基础对于理解住房危机和中产阶级化至关重要。
Across advanced economies, affordable housing shortages are pushing low-income voters out of cities. Left governments frequently exacerbate these shortages by eliminating public housing. Why does the Left pursue policies that displace its voters? We argue that the Left’s long-term rebalancing towards the middle class and away from an increasingly stigmatized “underclass” has significantly attenuated the trade-offs inherent in reducing affordable housing. Focusing on the UK, we demonstrate that by alienating low-income voters politically and reshuffling them across districts, housing crises have significant costs for Labour. Yet, drawing on interviews, we show that displacement is nonetheless compatible with electoral interests: the displaced make room for richer voters whom politicians believe will also support Labour. A quantitative analysis of Greater London’s 32 local authorities and 624 wards further documents trends in line with coalitional rebalancing. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that electoral foundations are key to understanding housing crises and gentrification.
07 立法者何时对少数民族做出回应？检验选举激励和候选人选择对缓和民族中心主义回应的作用
【题目】
When Are Legislators Responsive to Ethnic Minorities? Testing the Role of Electoral Incentives and Candidate Selection for Mitigating Ethnocentric Responsiveness
【作者】
Peter Thisted Dinesen, Malte Dahl, Mikkel Schiøler
【摘要】
之前的研究已经证明了政客在选民服务中的民族/种族偏见，但我们对如何遏制这种状况所知甚少，即以种族为中心的回应。在这方面我们提出并检验两个假设：选举激励假设认为选举（重选）的激励能够克服政客的潜在偏见，而候选人选择假设则认为少数族裔选民可以通过利用候选人的党派从属及其主张的政策偏好作为试探来识别有回应的立法者。我们通过对丹麦现任地方政客（N = 2,395）的回应性进行实地实验来检验上述假设，综合运用了对即将到来的选举中不同民族，性别和投票目的选民数据和来自一个投票建议应用程序提供的选举表现和主张的政策偏好的数据。我们发现了明显的以民族为中心的回应，且没有任何能表明选举激励缓和这种行为。但是，少数族裔选民可以利用党派和候选人对移民政策的立场识别回应性较强的政客。
Previous studies have documented ethnic/racial bias in politicians’ constituency service, but less is known about the circumstances under which such ethnocentric responsiveness is curbed. We propose and test two hypotheses in this regard: the electoral incentives hypothesis, predicting that incentives for (re)election crowd out politicians’ potential biases, and the candidate selection hypothesis, stipulating that minority constituents can identify responsive legislators by using candidates’ partisan affiliation and stated policy preferences as heuristics. We test these hypotheses through a field experiment on the responsiveness of incumbent local politicians in Denmark (N = 2,395), varying ethnicity, gender, and intention to vote for the candidate in the upcoming election, merged with data on their electoral performance and their stated policy preferences from a voting advice application. We observe marked ethnocentric responsiveness and find no indication that electoral incentives mitigate this behavior. However, minority voters can use parties’ and individual candidates’ stances on immigration to identify responsive politicians.
08 偏见中的傲慢：LGBT+维权运动在保守型社会中的影响
【题目】
Pride amid Prejudice: The Influence of LGBT+ Rights Activism in a Socially Conservative Society
【作者】
Phillip M. Ayoub, Douglas Page, Sam Whitt
【摘要】
保守社会的大众对女同性恋，男同性恋，双性恋和变性者（LGBT+）的倡导工作有何反应？我们想知道波斯尼亚，黑塞哥维那，和萨拉热窝第一个LGBT+Pride团体如何影响普通公民对支持LGBT+的态度和行为。通过一个全国和地方的追踪调查，我们发现，在“Pride”之后，地方对LGBT+维权运动的支持呈上升趋势，但该趋势并未能在全国范围内扩散，这体现了邻近机制如何强化“Pride”的影响。在调查实验中，我们发现研究对象对当地维权人士的动员和反动员的呼吁都做出了回应。我们还从一项行为实验中发现证据，即Pride有利于促进财政资源的分配转向当地支持LGBT+的群体并避开反对LGBT+的团体。最后，对地方LGBT+权利运动者的深入采访强调了LGBT+维权运动在保守社会中面临的挑战，但同时也指出了代表处于危险之中的少数群体采取集体行动的巨大可能性。
How do mass publics react to lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT+) advocacy efforts in socially conservative societies? We consider how the first-ever LGBT+ Pride in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina influences ordinary citizens’ attitudes and behavior regarding LGBT+ support. Using nationwide and local panel surveys, we find that support for LGBT+ activism increased locally after the Pride but did not diffuse nationwide, signaling how proximity mechanisms reinforce Pride effects. In survey experiments, we show that subjects are responsive to both mobilization and counter-mobilization appeals by local activists. We also find evidence from a behavioral experiment that the Pride had a positive effect on shifting the allocation of financial resources toward local pro-LGBT+ activists and away from opposition groups. Finally, in-depth interviews with local LGBT+ activists underscore the challenges facing LGBT+ activism in socially conservative societies but also point to the substantial possibilities of collective action on behalf of minorities at risk.
09 为什么采取紧缩政策？争议政策的大众政治
【题目】
Why Austerity? The Mass Politics of a Contested Policy
【作者】
Kirk Bansak, Michael M. Bechtel, Yotam Margalit
【摘要】
紧缩政策应对金融危机的效果引起了广泛的争议，并被认为会引发重大的选举抵制。尽管如此，政府在面对经济下行和赤字扩大时通常会采取紧缩的货币政策。我们通过区分公众对作为一般方法的紧缩政策的接受程度和对特定紧缩方案的支持来探索这个难题。运用五个欧洲国家的原始调查数据，我们发现紧缩实际上是大多数选民偏好的应对措施。我们对这一令人惊讶的偏好提出了可能的解释，并指出了以经济利益或直观的建构（政策）优势为中心的实证研究的局限。相反，研究表明，紧缩政策的偏好和其政治支持者以及削减支出和增税的构成密切相关。通过运用一种全新的方法来预测对历史上紧缩计划的支持，我们认为政府策略性的制定政策方案是紧缩政策得到支持背后的关键因素。
The effects of austerity in response to financial crises are widely contested and assumed to cause significant electoral backlash. Nonetheless, governments routinely adopt austerity when confronting economic downturns and swelling deficits. We explore this puzzle by distinguishing public acceptance of austerity as a general approach and support for specific austerity packages. Using original survey data from five European countries, we show that austerity is in fact the preferred response among most voters. We develop potential explanations for this surprising preference and demonstrate the empirical limitations of accounts centered on economic interests or an intuitive framing advantage. Instead, we show that the preference for austerity is highly sensitive to its political backers and precise composition of spending cuts and tax hikes. Using a novel approach to estimate support for historical austerity programs, we contend that governments’ strategic crafting of policy packages is a key factor underlying the support for austerity.
10 触发意识形态思考：选举如何促进福利国家态度的一致性
【题目】
Triggering Ideological Thinking: How Elections Foster Coherence of Welfare State Attitudes
【作者】
Tobias Heide-Jørgensen
【摘要】
自从Converse（1964）首次提出“无态度假说”以来，许多研究证实了公众普遍缺乏意识形态一致的政治态度。我提出了一种基于事件的态度凝聚理论，该理论解释了选举如何强化态度一致性，并将其应用于与必然构成左右（自由-保守）分裂的问题领域：福利政治。具体而言，我认为，以意识形态反对派占多数的选举将动员意识形态的倾向，从而产生更加一致的福利态度。基于近丹麦四十年来和地方选举官方记录相关的11次调查，使用断点回归的方法，我对这一论点进行了检验。证据强烈支持这一观点，即如果大多数人的态度和个人的意识形态偏好相冲突时，选举能够增强态度的一致性。调查结果强调了态度结构的动态特征以及周期性的政治事件在这一方面起的重要影响。
Since Converse (1964) first proposed his “nonattitudes hypothesis,” numerous studies have confirmed that the public at large lacks ideologically consistent political attitudes. I put forth an event-based theory of attitude crystallization that explains how elections can strengthen attitude consistency and apply it to an issue domain integral to the left-right (liberal-conservative) cleavage: welfare politics. Specifically, I theorize that elections that give ideological opponents a majority will mobilize ideological predispositions, leading to more coherent welfare attitudes. I test the argument by relying on 11 Danish surveys linked to official records on local elections over four decades and using a regression discontinuity design. Evidence strongly supports the notion that elections increase attitude consistency if the majority produced goes against the individual’s ideological preferences. The findings stress the dynamic nature of attitude structure and the important role regular political events play in that regard.
11 宪法的起源和自由民主：一个全球性分析，1900-2015
【题目】
Constitutional Origins and Liberal Democracy: A Global Analysis, 1900–2015
【作者】
Gabriel L. Negretto, Mariano Sanchez Talanquer
【摘要】
民主理论中有一个很强的传统，它主张只有人民直接参与的宪法可以建立或深化民主。与这个观点相反，我们认为，由不同社会支持基础的政治精英达成的多元共识的新宪法可能提升自由民主。起草宪法过程中，权力的分散导致这类制度的产生, 即在不过度损害多数人原则的前提下，保障反对势力免受行政权力滥用。然而，因为在位者可能会违背协议，政治上多元宪法协议的民主化效果有可能在短期内更大，也即在参与制定宪法的政治力量的认同以及它们之间的力量平衡趋于稳定时。运用一个关于1900至2015年宪法起源和双重差分研究方法的首创全球性数据库，我们支持了这些论点。
A strong tradition in democratic theory claims that only constitutions made with direct popular involvement can establish or deepen democracy. Against this view, we argue that new constitutions are likely to enhance liberal democracy when they emerge through a plural agreement among political elites with distinct bases of social support. Power dispersion during constitution writing induces the adoption of institutions that protect opposition forces from the arbitrary use of executive power without unduly impairing majority rule. However, since incumbents may renege on the bargain, the democratizing effect of politically plural constitutional agreements is likely to be larger in the short term, when the identity of negotiating political forces and the balance of power between them tend to remain stable. We find support for these arguments using an original global dataset on the origins of constitutions between 1900 and 2015 and a difference-in-differences design.
12 四种高成本的信号机制
【题目】
Four Costly Signaling Mechanisms
【作者】
Kai Quek
【摘要】
在国际关系中两种为人所知成本释放信号的机制：沉没成本和自缚手脚。我表明有四种同等普遍的高成本的信号机制。我提出了新的机制，分期成本和可减少成本，并且将它们与沉没成本和自缚手脚的成本进行对比。然后，我通过实验来检验四种释放信号的机制。我发现当成本高时，每种机制都能增加可信度，但是可减少成本即使在成本低时也能增加可信度。
Two mechanisms of costly signaling are known in international relations: sinking costs and tying hands. I show that there exist four mechanisms of costly signaling that are equally general. I develop the new mechanisms of installment costs and reducible costs and contrast them with sunk costs and tied-hands costs. I then conduct experiments to test the four signaling mechanisms. I find that each mechanism can improve credibility when the costs are high, but reducible costs can improve credibility even when the costs are low.
13 一去不复返：去工业化，白人选民的反水，和美国总统大选
【题目】
Gone For Good: Deindustrialization, White Voter Backlash, and US Presidential Voting
【作者】
Leonardo Baccini, Stephen Weymouth
【摘要】
全球化和自动化导致了去工业化和和数以百万计制造业工作的流失，对发达的民主制国家产生了重要的选举意义。结合经济投票和社会身份认同理论，我们想知道社会中不同的群体如何以截然不同的方式理解制造业的工作流失。我们认为去工业化威胁到了优势群体的地位，使受影响地方的一些白人选民青睐他们认为会应对经济低迷和维护种族阶层的候选人。通过考察三次美国总统大选，我们发现在制造业裁员高的地方，白人选民更有可能投给民主党候选人，但是在（经济）硬着陆的地方，黑人选民更可能投给民主党人。在调查数据中，与有色人种对比，白人调调查对象会把地方制造业工作的流失与个体上升流动的阻碍和美国整体的经济下行联系起来。基于族群的身份认同（差异）能够帮助解释共同经济冲击下迥然不同的政治反应。
Globalization and automation have contributed to deindustrialization and the loss of millions of manufacturing jobs, yielding important electoral implications across advanced democracies. Coupling insights from economic voting and social identity theory, we consider how different groups in society may construe manufacturing job losses in contrasting ways. We argue that deindustrialization threatens dominant group status, leading some white voters in affected localities to favor candidates they believe will address economic distress and defend racial hierarchy. Examining three US presidential elections, we find white voters were more likely to vote for Republican challengers where manufacturing layoffs were high, whereas Black voters in hard-hit localities were more likely to vote for Democrats. In survey data, white respondents, in contrast to people of color, associated local manufacturing job losses with obstacles to individual upward mobility and with broader American economic decline. Group-based identities help explain divergent political reactions to common economic shocks.
14 美国南部的奴隶制，重建和官僚能力
【题目】
Slavery, Reconstruction, and Bureaucratic Capacity in the American South
【作者】
Pavithra Suryanarayan, Steven White
【摘要】
传统的政治经济模型预测在选举权扩展到低收入选民后，税收会增加。然而，与预计相反，在等级社会中——社会地位是分水岭——精英可以建立跨阶层联盟来采取削弱官僚的策略从而限制未来再分配性税收。我们研究了一个身份等级尤其极端的案例：内战后的美国南部。在重建时期，联邦监管之下，正如标准理论模型预测的那样，内战前奴隶制更广泛的郡人均税收更高。然而在重建结束后，以前奴隶制遍布的地方，税收下降以及官僚能力更弱。而且，在先前奴隶制较普遍的郡重建之后，更高的白人之间的经济不平等与更低的税和更弱的（官僚）能力相关。这些关于白人内部经济不平等和内战前奴隶制之间的相互作用表明，在白人力图保护他们种族地位的地方，精英们建立了跨阶层联盟反对税收。
Conventional political economy models predict taxation will increase after franchise expansion to low-income voters. Yet, contrary to expectations, in ranked societies—where social status is a cleavage—elites can instead build cross-class coalitions to undertake a strategy of bureaucratic weakening to limit future redistributive taxation. We study a case where status hierarchies were particularly extreme: the post-Civil War American South. During Reconstruction, under federal oversight, per capita taxation was higher in counties where slavery had been more extensive before the war, as predicted by standard theoretical models. After Reconstruction ended, however, taxes fell and bureaucratic capacity was weaker where slavery had been widespread. Moreover, higher intrawhite economic inequality was associated with lower taxes and weaker capacity after Reconstruction in formerly high-slavery counties. These findings on the interaction between intrawhite economic inequality and pre-War slavery suggest that elites built cross-class coalitions against taxation where whites sought to protect their racial status.
15 当不熟悉滋生鄙夷：党员的选择性接触如何使对立媒体的敌意持续
【题目】
When Unfamiliarity Breeds Contempt: How Partisan Selective Exposure Sustains Oppositional Media Hostility
【作者】
Erik Peterson, Ali Kagalwala
【摘要】
党派成员对与另一政党相关联的媒体持有负面观点。他们也会回避其他党派的新闻来源。结合这些发现，我们认为党派成员基于负面的和不准确的成见来评价其他党派的媒体。这意味着交叉接触挑战了这些误解（的媒体）可以改善对其他党派媒体的评价。为了支持这一论点，我们用调查链接的网页浏览数据来表明公众对他们难得碰到的党外媒体的新闻来源有敌对观念。我们进行了三个调查实验证明对非政治或中性的政治故事（能在线从党派信息源普遍获得的新闻类型）的交叉接触减少了对立媒体的的敌意。这解释了对党外媒体泛滥偏见的感知如何能与主流党派新闻媒体差异并不明显的在线内容共存。更宽泛地说，我们阐明了当人们回避接触外部群体时，负面的错误认知如何得以持续。
Partisans hold unfavorable views of media they associate with the other party. They also avoid out-party news sources. We link these developments and argue that partisans assess out-party media based on negative and inaccurate stereotypes. This means cross-cutting exposure that challenges these misperceptions can improve assessments of out-party media. To support this argument, we use survey-linked web browsing data to show that the public has hostile views of out-party news sources they rarely encounter. We conduct three survey experiments that demonstrate cross-cutting exposure to nonpolitical or neutral political stories, forms of news widely available from online partisan sources, reduces oppositional media hostility. This explains how perceptions of rampant bias from out-party media coexist with more modest differences in the online content of major partisan news outlets. More broadly, we illustrate how negative misperceptions can sustain animus towards an out-group when people avoid encounters with them.
16 无需批准的控制：总统任命中的空缺政治
【题目】
Control without Confirmation: The Politics of Vacancies in Presidential Appointments
【作者】
Christina M. Kinane
【摘要】
关于分权的学术著作认为当在制定政策顶端的位置上放置代理人时，行政受到立法准许的限制。但是总统频繁地以未经批准的、临时的官员填补领导职位的空缺，或者将它们直接留空。我建立了一个从1977到2016年横跨十五个行政部门空缺职位的新数据库，并且重估了任命权仅通过正式渠道运作的传统观念。我认为总统的任命策略包括让职位空缺和作暂时任命，并且这种选择反映了总统优先考虑的事项以及空缺职位的特点。这一证据表明当职位有巨大能力对总统扩大的优先考虑之事采取行动时，暂时任命的可能性更大；并且表明总统可以从先手行动者优势中获利来规避议会的批准。结果进一步表明分权模型可能需要考虑有意不作为和对正式权力的回避如何影响政治控制和政策制定策略。
Scholarship on separation of powers assumes executives are constrained by legislative approval when placing agents in top policy-making positions. But presidents frequently fill vacancies in agency leadership with unconfirmed, temporary officials or leave them empty entirely. I develop a novel dataset of vacancies across 15 executive departments from 1977 to 2016 and reevaluate the conventional perspective that appointment power operates only through formal channels. I argue that presidents’ nomination strategies include leaving positions empty and making interim appointments, and this choice reflects presidents’ priorities and the character of vacant positions. The evidence indicates that interim appointees are more likely when positions have a substantial capacity to act on presidential expansion priorities and suggest that presidents can capitalize on their first-mover advantage to evade Senate confirmation. The results further suggest that separation of powers models may need to consider how deliberate inaction and sidestepping of formal powers influence political control and policy-making strategies.
17 列奥·施特劳斯《哲学与律法》中的柏拉图式神学政治，自由主义，和威权主义
【题目】
Platonic Theocracy, Liberalism, and Authoritarianism in Leo Strauss’s Philosophy and Law
【作者】
John P. McCormick
【摘要】
列奥·施特劳斯在《哲学与律法》（1935）中提供了比自由主义和威权主义更正义和稳定的另一种选择——柏拉图式政治神学。不同于仅仅是对中世纪犹太和伊斯兰哲学的学术探究，我把此书作为道德至善论政治秩序的方案支持来阅读：一个神圣合法和理性正当的“真”或“美”的国家。因为人类需要政治社群来压制他们的邪恶倾向并且促进他们的品性向善，施特劳斯批评自由主义和现代威权主义，因为前者主张政府应该对善恶保持中立，而后者将神学政治工具化以有效地制造盲目崇拜。我证明施特劳斯这本长期被忽视的著作与我们自己的“后世俗年代”尤其相关。这是一个宗教正统的信徒们与日俱增地从自由民主那索要妥协，而复兴的国家威权主义频繁地在宗教的包装下伪装自己的时代。
Leo Strauss, in Philosophy and Law (1935), offers Platonic theocracy as a more just and stable political alternative to both liberalism and authoritarianism. Rather than merely a scholastic investigation of medieval Jewish and Islamic philosophy, I read the book as a programmatic endorsement of a morally perfectionist political order: a divinely legitimated and rationally justified “true” or “beautiful” state. Since human beings require political community to suppress their evil inclinations and promote their disposition toward the good, Strauss criticizes liberalism for contending that government should remain neutral regarding good and evil and modern authoritarianism for effectively committing idolatry by politically instrumentalizing theology. I demonstrate that Strauss’s long-neglected book is particularly relevant for our own “postsecular age,” an age when adherents of religious orthodoxy increasingly demand concessions from liberal democracies and resurgent state authoritarianism frequently cloaks itself in religious trappings.
18 决策，单峰，和一致的集合
【题目】
Deliberation, Single-Peakedness, and Coherent Aggregation
【作者】
Soroush Rafiee Rad, Olivier Roy
【摘要】
理性决策通过促进元协议帮助避免循环的或非传递性的群体偏好，这反过来保证了单峰轮廓。这是一个被一致认可的观点，但这篇文章认为它需要被限定。一方面，我们由计算模拟提供证据，理性决策倾向于向所谓的单峰偏好增加亲近度。正如我们所论证的那样，这个证据很重要，理性决策促进元协议的产生，而且反过来，单峰轮廓不会延续到单平台中，并且是后者而非前者，在允许参与者表达中立态度时，使一致的集合成为可能。然而另一方面，我们的计算结果显示，与被（广为）接受的观点相反，当参与者对其自身的观点有强烈偏见时，理性决策倾向于产生而非消除非理性的群体偏好。这些结果与参与者是否此在过程中达成元协议无关，并且正因如此，它们强调了在理解理性决策效果时，理性偏好的变化以及偏向于个人意见的偏见的重要性。
Rational deliberation helps to avoid cyclic or intransitive group preferences by fostering meta-agreements, which in turn ensures single-peaked profiles. This is the received view, but this paper argues that it should be qualified. On one hand we provide evidence from computational simulations that rational deliberation tends to increase proximity to so-called single-plateaued preferences. This evidence is important to the extent that, as we argue, the idea that rational deliberation fosters the creation of meta-agreement and, in turn, single-peaked profiles does not carry over to single-plateaued ones, and the latter but not the former makes coherent aggregation possible when the participants are allowed to express indifference between options. On the other hand, however, our computational results show, against the received view, that when the participants are strongly biased towards their own opinions, rational deliberation tends to create irrational group preferences, instead of eliminating them. These results are independent of whether the participants reach meta-agreements in the process, and as such they highlight the importance of rational preference change and biases towards one’s own opinion in understanding the effects of rational deliberation.
19 社会科学话语的动力模型
【题目】
A Dynamic Model of Speech for the Social Sciences
【作者】
Dean Knox, Christopher Lucas
【摘要】
演讲和对话是政治的核心：几乎世界上每一个政治机构都涉及语言沟通。然而大量关于政治传播的文献大多只关注沟通的内容，完全忽视它们是如何被传达的——传递情绪的听觉信号、表明立场和建立声誉。我们开发了一个能对这种信息进行统计研究的模型：视听结构模型（MASS）。我们的方法是把政治话语作为由固定的和因时而异的共变数塑造的随机过程，包括对话自身的历史。运用高等法院的口头辩论，我们证明声音的语调如何传达重要的信息——对法律论据的怀疑——这对文本模型来说是难以识别的。结果表明，法官们不会用询问的方式策略性地操控其同辈，而是真诚地参与到关于论据的讨论之中。我们易使用的R包，沟通（communication），运行了这一模型和其他更多的工具用于声音分析。
Speech and dialogue are the heart of politics: nearly every political institution in the world involves verbal communication. Yet vast literatures on political communication focus almost exclusively on what words were spoken, entirely ignoring how they were delivered—auditory cues that convey emotion, signal positions, and establish reputation. We develop a model that opens this information to principled statistical inquiry: the model of audio and speech structure (MASS). Our approach models political speech as a stochastic process shaped by fixed and time-varying covariates, including the history of the conversation itself. In an application to Supreme Court oral arguments, we demonstrate how vocal tone signals crucial information—skepticism of legal arguments—that is indecipherable to text models. Results show that justices do not use questioning to strategically manipulate their peers but rather engage sincerely with the presented arguments. Our easy-to-use R package, communication, implements the model and many more tools for audio analysis.
20 治理质量的政治经济学
【题目】
The Political Economy of Governance Quality
【作者】
Michael M. Ting
【摘要】
这篇文章展开了一种治理质量社会和政治根基的动态理论。在模型中，公民群体对公共服务有不同期待的需要，而且当需求产生时，公民们选择是否要求服务。代表这些群体的政客们可以决定政策收益并且赋予官员们致力于（提升）长期服务质量的能力。这一理论主要的特征是它为公民-政府互动提供了基础，借鉴了知名的组织型服务提供的排队模型。这一模型为描述政府系统的有效性和持续性提供了框架。一个主要的启示是：政治化的官僚体系增进了系统的存活能力并增加了投资的频率，而封闭的系统增加了投资的强度；总体的服务质量在这两个因素之间平衡。其他的结果考察了跨群体不平等、选举条件和分权的意义。
This paper develops a dynamic theory of the social and political foundations of governance quality. In the model, groups of citizens have different expected needs for a public service, and citizens choose whether to demand service when the need arises. Politicians representing these groups can determine policy benefits and delegate to bureaucrats the ability to invest in long-run service quality. The main feature of the theory is its foundation for citizen–government interactions, which draws from well-known queueing models of organizational service provision. The model provides a framework for characterizing the effectiveness and durability of government programs. A main implication is that politicized bureaucracies improve program survivability and increase the frequency of investment, while insulated bureaucracies increase the intensity of investment; overall service quality trades off between these two factors. Other results examine the implications of cross-group inequality, electoral conditions, and decentralization.
翻 译：黄小霞 吴一笛
校 对：黄小霞 吴一笛
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编辑：林 蓓
一审：刘博涵
二审：袁 丁
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